All-In’s Deep Dive on 2026: What Four Silicon Valley Billionaires Think Will Make Money in Crypto
All-In’s Deep Dive on 2026: What Four Silicon Valley Billionaires Think Will Make Money in Crypto
If you care about crypto investment, it’s worth listening when Silicon Valley’s most outspoken operators compare notes. In the All-In Podcast’s “2026 Predictions” episode on January 9, 2026, Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg sketched the forces they believe will shape returns this year. Below is a crypto-native analysis of those calls—translated into practical opportunities across blockchain trends and 2026 investment opportunities. For context, the episode outline and segment timestamps are here: All-In’s 2026 Predictions.
1) Regulation and market structure are finally tailwinds
Why it matters: Predictability invites capital. Two milestones from the last 18 months changed the risk-reward math for institutions.
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Spot Ether ETFs went live in the U.S. on July 23, 2024, following the SEC’s final approvals, bringing ETH into traditional brokerage rails and 401(k)/RIA workflows. This mainstreamed Ethereum exposure alongside January 2024’s spot Bitcoin ETFs. See coverage in CoinDesk and the Financial Times.
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The U.S. enacted the first federal stablecoin framework in 2025. The GENIUS Act (S.1582) passed Congress and was signed on July 18, 2025, creating licensing, 1:1 reserve, disclosure, and enforcement standards—critical for bank, fintech, and merchant adoption. See the official White House notice and nonpartisan summaries from the Library of Congress: White House brief and CRS overview on Congress.gov.
What to watch in 2026:
- Merchant payouts, B2B settlement and cross‑border flows riding regulated stablecoins, particularly in geographies where card rails are expensive or slow. Citi forecasts suggest a multi‑trillion‑dollar stablecoin and bank‑token market by 2030—read their revised outlook: Citi GPS “Stablecoins 2030”.
- Brokerage platforms making ETH allocations as vanilla as gold—improving liquidity for on‑chain collateral strategies and venture hedging.
Investment takeaway:
- Consider balanced exposure across BTC/ETH plus picks‑and‑shovels: compliant stablecoin issuers, payment gateways, custody/attestation providers, and on‑chain compliance tooling.
2) RWAs and on‑chain treasuries: the “boring” yield most pros will want
The All-In crew has for years emphasized capital efficiency and yield. In crypto, that theme now lives in tokenized Treasuries and money‑market funds.
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BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) moved from its Ethereum debut in March 2024 to a multi‑chain footprint in 2024–2025, and has been adopted as collateral in institutional workflows. See reporting from CNBC and CoinDesk.
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The tokenized Treasuries category accelerated in 2025. Real‑time dashboards show the market topping $9B as of mid‑January 2026, across issuers and chains. Track it via RWA.xyz’s Treasuries dashboard, and broader RWA growth trends in the FT and CoinDesk.
What to watch in 2026:
- RWAs used as prime collateral—more exchanges, OTC desks, and lenders accepting tokenized MMFs or T‑bills to reduce counterparty risk and accelerate settlement.
- Expansion beyond Treasuries into private credit and fund shares as disclosure and transfer‑agent plumbing improve.
Investment takeaway:
- For institutions, “cash‑equivalent on‑chain” becomes a portfolio primitive. For builders, the opportunity is infrastructure: issuance, transfer agents, tokenized collateral management, and treasury‑ops middleware.
3) Prediction markets: from curiosity to mainstream data feed
The All-In hosts highlighted prediction markets—explicitly calling out Polymarket—as potential business winners. That thesis found real‑world validation: Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) announced up to a $2B strategic investment in Polymarket in October 2025, plus a plan to distribute event‑driven data to institutions. Read the primary release: Business Wire: ICE invests in Polymarket.
Why it matters:
- Markets that price probabilities can improve news, risk management, and governance. Tying them to regulated rails (via GENIUS Act context) and institutional data distribution makes them investable infrastructure, not just retail novelty.
Opportunities in 2026:
- Liquidity provisioning, market‑making, and risk‑transfer products on top of prediction markets.
- On‑chain identity and KYC modules tailored for event markets, plus oracle and dispute‑resolution services.
Caveats:
- Volume‑quality scrutiny will continue (e.g., wash‑trading studies). Expect heavier analytics and surveillance. See critical takes in Bloomberg.
4) Scaling and restaking unlock new app economics
Lower fees and shared security were recurring All-In themes when the besties discussed where real usage could explode.
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Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade (March 13, 2024) introduced EIP‑4844 “blobs,” slashing L2 data costs and enabling order‑of‑magnitude fee reductions—vital for consumer apps. See the Ethereum Foundation announcement and post‑upgrade fee impacts tracked by L2 teams in outlets like The Block.
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Restaking matured in 2024–2025. EigenLayer launched on mainnet with EigenDA and added the critical “slashing” feature in April 2025, addressing prior concerns about accountability. See CoinDesk coverage and the initial mainnet rollout reported in CoinDesk.
What to watch in 2026:
- A wave of Actively Validated Services (AVSs): oracles, intent solvers, decentralized data, cross‑chain security, and new settlement services paid in stablecoins.
- Consolidation among modular stacks as DA layers, rollups, and AVSs compete on reliability SLAs and compliance.
Investment takeaway:
- Exposure to L2 ecosystems, DA providers, and restaking middleware can be attractive, but do diligence on slashing conditions, rehypothecation risks, and operator concentration.
5) AI x crypto: “agents with wallets” and the security reality check
All-In’s macro calls around AI—automation, cheaper inference, and productivity—map directly to crypto in two ways:
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Machine agents that can hold value and pay for API calls or compute will prefer instant, programmable settlement (stablecoins, account abstraction). That’s a 2026‑ready wedge for micro‑commerce.
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But security is non‑negotiable. Vitalik Buterin warns teams to “tread carefully” when mixing AI with crypto, especially when AI influences rules, oracles, or governance. See summaries of his guidance in CoinDesk and follow‑ups on risks of AI‑mediated governance in CoinTelegraph.
Opportunities in 2026:
- AI‑augmented wallets that explain transactions and detect scams, bolstered by on‑chain reputation and ML‑powered anomaly detection.
- Decentralized compute markets and DePIN networks (GPU, bandwidth, wireless) that rent resources to AI agents and apps. See sector overviews and projections in Messari’s DePIN updates.
Risk management:
- 2024–2025 saw elevated losses from scams and exploits, with stablecoins playing a larger role in illicit volumes even as most activity remains licit. Build with rigorous threat models and off‑ramps tuned to the GENIUS Act’s compliance demands. See Chainalysis‑sourced coverage in The Block.
6) How the besties’ 2026 bets translate into crypto theses
While the episode ranged across politics and macro, several predictions point directly to crypto and blockchain trend lines:
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“Best performing assets” tilted toward equities and productivity—crypto’s analog is protocols benefiting from lower L2 fees and real revenue: payments stablecoins, RWA settlement, and data services.
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“Biggest business winners” included prediction markets and industrial plays; on‑chain versions are markets for information (prediction protocols and data oracles), tokenized commodities and financing, and RWA collateral engines attached to exchanges and prime brokers. See the episode’s outline and context here: All‑In’s 2026 Predictions.
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A pro‑growth policy regime (their “Trump Boom” frame) aligns with friendlier U.S. posture toward ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenization—matching the legislative and regulatory trendlines cited above. See Congress.gov CRS on GENIUS and the White House’s signing note.
7) A practical 2026 crypto playbook
Not financial advice. Use this as a starting framework and size positions to your risk tolerance.
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Core exposures
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Yield and collateral
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Growth and infra
- Scaling and shared security: leading L2s, DA layers, and credible AVSs. Technical/fee backdrop: Ethereum Foundation on Dencun.
- Information markets and data: prediction markets (with a strong compliance stack), on‑chain data feeds, and risk products. Institutional validation: ICE x Polymarket.
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Risk controls
- Prefer audited, open‑source components; segregate exposure by counterparty and chain; rehearse incident response (key compromise, app exploit, sanction event).
- Track evolving GENIUS Act rulemaking in 2026 for licensing, disclosures, and safekeeping requirements via Congress.gov.
8) A note on self‑custody for 2026
Institutional rails are improving, but the All‑In crew’s ethos—own your outcomes—still applies. If you hold assets directly, choose a hardware wallet that is open‑source, supports major L1/L2 ecosystems, and integrates with policy controls you actually use (multi‑sig, passphrase, transaction simulation). OneKey focuses on pragmatic security for active crypto users—fast setup, multi‑chain support, and open‑source firmware—so traders and builders who plan to interact with L2s, RWAs, prediction markets, and DePIN this year can execute with lower operational risk. For teams, pair hardware with clear key ceremonies, role separation, and periodic recovery drills.
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Silicon Valley’s billionaires are betting that 2026 rewards builders who ship real utility: cheaper on‑chain payments, safe yield, markets that price truth, and secure rails for AI‑age commerce. Thanks to ETF access, the GENIUS Act, and Ethereum’s scaling, those bets now have the regulatory clarity and unit economics to work at scale. If you align your crypto strategy to those vectors—and secure it well—you’ll be positioned for where the puck is going.
References and further reading:
- All‑In Podcast episode guide: All-In’s 2026 Predictions
- Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade: Ethereum Foundation blog
- Ether ETFs approval and launch: CoinDesk, Financial Times
- GENIUS Act law: White House, Congress.gov CRS
- Tokenized Treasuries and RWAs: RWA.xyz dashboard, FT market overview, [CoinDesk R
